IRIN Focus – Containing the crisis

Upcountry travel for UN workers in Burundi these days is a complicated matter. Military escorts are the order of the day, and in some areas bulletproof jackets and helmets must be worn. Eighteen months ago such precautions were not necessary. The development is indicative of a rapidly declining security situation in the country, intensified by the return of hundreds of rebels from bases outside the country. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) do not have such strict rules as the UN. They travel around the country unescorted, when they want. Last week, a vehicle belonging to the British NGO Children’s Aid Direct was ambushed near the northwestern town of Bubanza, the driver was killed and three employees briefly taken hostage. Five weeks earlier, six aid workers employed by the NGO Memisa-Coped were kidnapped by rebels of the Forces pour la defense de la democratie (FDD) in the southern Makamba province and held for several days. Abducting aid workers is a new tactic of the rebels, who claim the humanitarian organisations are ignoring needy people in territory “under their control”. Burundi’s bloody civil war has been raging for eight years, since the assassination of the country’s first democratically-elected president, Melchior Ndadaye, in 1993. Humanitarian workers have always operated in difficult conditions, but this time their work is being caught up in complicated political processes underway both in Burundi and in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Parallel peace initiatives in the two countries appear to bearing fruit for the DRC at the expense of Burundi. Implementation of the Lusaka accord aimed at bringing peace to DRC means disarming and demobilising rebel groups – particularly from Rwanda and Burundi – based on Congolese territory. While slow steps towards implementation are underway, Burundi’s peace accord, signed in Arusha last year, appears to be in tatters. The armed rebel groups, now filtering back into Burundi to avoid demobilisation, have been excluded from a process they believe does not concern them. Political infighting by the sides that did negotiate the Arusha accord has greatly delayed its implementation. Insecurity Security sources in Burundi have noted an alarming realignment of rebel troops. Members of the FDD – who previously were active in northwest and southern areas of the country – are now reported to have moved closer to the capital, Bujumbura, with bases in parts of Bujumbura Rural such as Mutambo. There are reports that the FDD has linked up with the other main rebel group in Burundi, the Forces nationales de liberation (FNL), which traditionally has been active around Bujumbura. “There are infiltrations [into Burundi] nearly every day – many ambushes and attacks on military positions,” one source said. “Bujumbura is surrounded. The rebels now have better weapons, some wear uniforms, it’s difficult to know who is who.” Some 10,000-15,000 FDD rebels are now said to be inside Burundi, many entering from the DRC with weapons either captured in battle or allegedly provided by the Congolese government of former president Laurent-Desire Kabila. Others are crossing over from Tanzania, where hundreds of thousands of Burundian refugees are encamped along that country’s western border. Central Burundi, which used to be relatively calm, is now experiencing insecurity as rebels use the area as a transit route to join their colleagues massively regrouping in the northwest Kibira forest. Mingling amongst them are thousands of former Rwandan soldiers (ex-FAR) and Interahamwe militiamen, also with nowhere to go and who, according to some observers, are attempting to destabilise Rwanda by infiltrating from its southern neighbour. Burundi analyst Jan van Eck recently issued a strong warning against the militarisation of the refugee camps, cautioning that the situation was reminiscent of that on the Rwanda-Zaire border from 1994-1996. “The international community was regularly warned by Rwanda to take action against the armed groups who were using the refugee camps just across the border in Zaire...but the world ignored all these warnings,” he said a report issued in May. “The result: Rwanda invaded Zaire to solve the problem itself…As the war in Burundi escalates and the prospects of a real peace decline on a daily basis, nobody should be surprised if the Rwandan example is repeated.” But insecurity is not just due to rebel elements alone. Burundian residents, particularly in Bujumbura, are growing more and more alarmed by bandit attacks, provoked by dropping living standards. Unemployment is rife, prices of basic commodities are rising, yet salaries stay the same. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference between “genuine rebels” and sheer bandits, residents say. Undisciplined soldiers pose another problem. Humanitarian sources point out that with growing unemployment and few prospects, young men prefer to take up weapons – whether in the army or for the rebels. “With a gun you can get anything you want,” they note, adding that many of the rebel attacks appear to be “more for survival” – stealing crops, cattle and so on. Furthermore, the army has been training and arming former rebels to act as civil defence units. But these ‘Guardiens de la paix’, as they are known, are also causing concern among the population. They have been described as “anarchic”, “poorly trained” and dressed in civilian clothes. Some NGO workers blame much of the current insecurity on these former rebels. However, the army dismisses the possibility of betrayal by the ‘Guardiens de la paix’. “They have been very useful to us,” army spokesman Colonel Augustin Nzabampema told IRIN. “Their first job is to observe and report back to the army.” He said they had become disillusioned with life in the bush, “realising that a military solution is not possible”. Acknowledging that the war “is still in ascendancy”, Nzabampema underlines the “rebel recruitment in the Tanzanian refugee camps” and states that if the refugees return from Tanzania “it will be the beginning of peace”. Humanitarian response Humanitarian workers, already faced with seemingly insurmountable obstacles, could just be seeing the tip of the iceberg. The Tanzanian authorities have been growing more and more edgy over the presence of some 500,000 refugees on their territory – the second largest refugee population in the world, according to UNHCR -, describing them as a burden, and calling for their repatriation. Burundi says it wants them back, but aid agencies say they cannot return until there is security in the country. An increasingly impatient Tanzania has warned it may force them back. The humanitarian community may soon find itself dealing with a nightmare situation of hundreds of thousands of returning refugees, displaced people scattered in all directions and ugly fights over land – labelled as one of the most worrying aspects of the massive return of refugees. A contingency plan is being elaborated which takes into consideration the sudden and temporary displacement of people which Georg Charpentier, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Burundi, says is one of the most problematic consequences of the humanitarian crisis and one of the most difficult to plan for. The sudden displacement of some 60,000 people in the Bujumbura suburb of Kinama earlier this year - caused by rebel attacks and army intervention – required enormous resources that had to be taken from regular programmes, he explained. The humanitarian community has urged donors to be more responsive. “They respond in a full blown crisis, but the response should be to prevent such crises,” a UN official observed. For example, the recent massive malnutrition crisis in Karuzi province – due to malaria and poor harvests - could have been pre-empted. “Karuzi could happen all over the country,” the official warned. A major part of the humanitarian strategy is to prepare the country to receive the refugees, and to sensitise the refugees themselves. Many of the communes and provinces do not have the infrastructure, neither schools nor food for the returnees – all of which they have in the camps. If Tanzania goes ahead with its threat to expel the refugees, the return will not be orderly – another headache for the humanitarian community. And increasing rebel activity in Burundi is not conducive for an orderly return. An international NGO worker noted the need for short term or rapid response. “Even in the best case scenario, the Arusha peace accord will take months to implement,” he said. Burundi is so dependent on the unfolding situation in the DRC where, he pointed out, “there is a positive momentum, but no guarantees”. A disturbing development in Burundi is the attempt by rebels to levy “taxes” in areas they say they control. Aid groups say this poses a dilemma when trying to access vulnerable people in rebel-controlled territory. NGOs on the ground have also called on the international community to be more proactive when it comes to Burundi. They say it is not enough for the international community to state that regional problems require regional solutions. “Most of the time, the regional powers are part of the problem, not the solution,” one worker commented. Charpentier stresses that not all is doom and gloom in Burundi. Positive aspects such as community development programmes, farming initiatives, help for the increasing number of households headed by women can all serve as a vehicle for peace and reconciliation in the country. Women are seen as key players in eventually reactivating society and the economy, and in counselling returnees. A UN worker involved in peace and reconciliation efforts said it was up to the humanitarian community to help the government prepare the people for the return of refugees. “There is a psychological problem here,” he said. “Burundians think the refugees are ‘bad people’ and the refugees are afraid of returning. We must convince them they are all brothers and that there is no danger.” Everyone stresses the need for long-term development aid if Burundi is to move forward and break the cycle of violence and stagnation. As one regional observer noted: “If it’s not the rebels, politics and poverty will bring the country down.”