Cabindan rebels under pressure

A rise in separatist activity in the oil-rich Angolan enclave of Cabinda could actually signal the demise of the rebel movement, a report this week by the influential US intelligence-gathering firm Stratfor said. The newsletter suggested that a well-equipped Angolan military and closer cooperation between Luanda and the rebels' former allies in Congo-Brazzaville and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could have further isolated the faction-ridden Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) separatists. "Now, while Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos' government discusses plans for greater autonomy for Cabinda and launches operations into the province, the rebels are growing more desperate and may respond with increased violence," the Sratfor report said. "This isolation may sound the death knell for the rebel movement, forcing the guerrillas to even more desperate acts of violence. But it will not likely lead to their successful liberation from control by Luanda." According to the US Department of Energy, the separatists groups - fighting since the 1960s for independence of the enclave divided from the rest of Angola by a sliver of the DRC - want a share of the oil revenue for the province's 250,000 people. Currently, the province receives only 10 percent of taxes paid by oil companies with operations off Cabinda's shore. "But the FLEC's hope of winning concessions from the government in Luanda is growing less likely. Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos' administration effectively has isolated the guerrillas," Stratfor said. The main FLEC factions, FLEC-Renovata and FLEC-FAC (Cabinda Armed Forces) also are deeply divided, encouraging competition and conflict that Luanda often exploits, the newsletter said. For example, FLEC-FAC - the faction responsible for the kidnapping of three Portuguese oil workers last year - is lead by Henrique Nzita Tiago. But FLEC-Renovata leader Antonio Lopes claimed he could free the hostages. Lopes' group acts as the FLEC government-in-exile and often competes with the FLEC-FAC, which operates inside Cabinda. "The rebel groups retain wide popular support from the Cabindan locals but are strapped for arms and funding," the report noted. "Although the government in Luanda has discussed greater autonomy for Cabinda, there is little chance of Angola relinquishing its hold over the vital enclave." It added: "While the government-in-exile angles for negotiations, launching diplomatic offensives throughout Europe, rebels on the ground will be forced to continue to wage their low-intensity war with little help from the outside. This will push the rebels closer to the urban areas and to more desperate means of survival, including violent acts of banditry and increased kidnapping."