IRIN Focus on Luanda’s Kinshasa policy

Angola, a key regional power, is likely to play an influential role with the new government in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) following the death this week of president Laurent-Desire Kabila, analysts told IRIN. "The government in Congo is very weak without Kabila," analyst Claude Kabemba at South Africa's Institute of Policy Studies said. "There is no way that (Angolan President Jose Eduardo) dos Santos would allow somebody to take power in Kinshasa and he doesn't control that person." Kabila's son, Major-General Joseph Kabila has been appointed his successor, but it is not yet clear how much real power the 32-year-old wields. Angola will be "part of the consideration and part of the discussions" over the complexion and direction of the new government in Kinshasa, Ben Jackson, director of the London-based Angola Peace Monitor told IRIN. "I don't think Angola would like to see a military government - propping up a military government would be difficult to sell internationally," he added. Angola's demonstrated willingness to deploy its battle-hardened troops abroad has turned the oil-rich country into a regional power. Angola was part of the anti-Mobutu Sese Seko alliance which brought Kabila to power in 1997. Across the river in war-wracked Congo-Brazzaville, Luanda also assisted Denis Sassou-Nguesso regain the presidential palace. A year later it was well-equipped Angolan troops that halted the Rwandan and Ugandan-backed rebel advance on Kinshasa, saving Kabila's government. "Angola's influence is based on its military capabilities," Kabemba said. With moral among Zimbabwe troops reportedly low, and Namibian soldiers numbering no more than 2,000, Angola is the key player in the pro-Kinshasa alliance, analysts said. It has elite forces around Kinshasa, which sources told IRIN were beefed up this week. Angolan troops are also in Mbuji-Mayi, in Kasai Oriental, and the southern Katanga province. The clear aim of Luanda's intervention in the DRC was to close the long-standing supply routes used by the Angolan rebel movement UNITA. Frustration reportedly mounted over Kabila's failure to keep up his end of the bargain, as UNITA re-established its diamond trading operations. "Kabila was not interested in controlling UNITA's movement. He was close to forgetting why dos Santos was in the DRC," Kabemba noted. "Perhaps it was Kabila's arrogance that led to his death." Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia were also reportedly increasingly concerned over Kabila's obstruction of the 1999 Lusaka peace agreement, condemning their forces to remain in the DRC. "It is reasonably widely-known that Angola started to get a bit frustrated with Kabila's lack of progress with Lusaka," Jackson said. "They would like to see a leadership more favourable to Lusaka that would allow them to extricate themselves from the DRC." The new Kinshasa government would also have to show far more commitment to clamping down on UNITA activity along the long border it shares with Angola. "It's quite a critical period at the moment. It's quite clear that UNITA is trying to re-establish supply routes after its military reversals inside Angola. And if it found a foothold in the chaos in the DRC, that would alarm Angola," Jackson said.